New Day Dawning pre-race analysis with Sean Tugal

If you would have asked us two weeks ago where New Day Dawning was going to run, the Forward Gal would have been about 3rd or 4th choice.  But, this is a great example of being nominated to all the possible stakes and being prepared to make quick decisions.  The racing office called Rodolphe earlier this week and told him that the race was coming up light if he had a filly that he thought would fit the race.  Luckily, New Day Dawning fit that prescription and the Stablemates Syndicate finds itself competing in a graded stakes race.

On paper the heavy favorite Tonalist’s Shape looks very daunting having won all three of her starts, including a last out nine length victory at Gulfstream.  Also, in the field that needs respect is the #4 Street of Dreams who is bred to relish the slop and took to it like a duck to water in her last out victory at Churchill Downs with a 79 beyer.  Also, Compensate who is the only other multiple winner in the field was flattered by Cruise and Danze who came back and won the Ruthless Stakes after defeating her last time out.  Compensate will also need to move up her speed figures considerably just as will New Day Dawning to be competitive in this field.

If we get the wet weather that is possible for Saturday at Gulfstream it could help move New Day Dawning up over some of her competitors as her breeding suggests she will relish an off going.  New Day Dawning’s post position once again is good and has her drawn to the outside, where if she breaks well and straight she should be able to sit another stalking trip.  It is a tough ask for her to step up against graded stakes competition but we believe she has the talent to be competitive.  Also, this is a very good opportunity in a short field to get graded placing black type for her which is crucial for a filly of her value.